July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) on Friday closed up +0.13 (+0.93%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) closed up +12.50 (+2.94%).
Sugar prices rose sharply on Friday amid concerns that an emerging El Niño weather pattern will lead to a poor monsoon season in India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer. Short covering emerged in sugar futures on Friday after India’s weather office lowered its cumulative rainfall estimate for the June-September monsoon season to 90% of the long-term average from a forecast of 92% issued in April.
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Growing concerns that dry weather from an El Niño event could disrupt global sugar production are supportive of prices. The emergence of an El Niño is likely to curb rainfall in Brazil, India, and Thailand, the world’s three largest sugar-producing regions. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July and persist through the end of the year, with a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño.”
On Thursday, NY sugar fell to a 1-month low, and London sugar fell to a 5-week low after Unica on Wednesday reported that 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar production in April rose +55.3% y/y to 2.475 MMT, driven by higher yields, with sucrose per ton of cane at 112.58 kilograms, up +5.4% from the same time last year.
Strength in Thailand’s sugar exports, the world’s second-largest, is also bearish for prices. Thailand’s 2026 sugar exports Jan-Apr rose +29% y/y to 1.6 MMT.
Last Monday, the ISO forecast a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season and raised its global surplus estimate. The ISO forecasts 2025/26 global sugar production at a record 182 MMT, up +3.5% y/y, and raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 2.2 MMT from a February forecast of 1.22 MMT, rebounding from a -3.46 MMT deficit in 2024-25.
Sugar prices have support on projections from the International Sugar Organization (ISO) that 2026/27 global sugar production will fall -1.15 y/y to 180 MMT, and that there will be a global sugar deficit of 262,000 MT, citing the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern on harvests in India and Thailand.
On May 11, Citigroup projected Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 39.50 MMT, well below Conab’s estimate of 43.95 MMT, citing Brazilian sugar mills’ allocation of more sugarcane to ethanol production amid soaring gasoline prices. Also, Citigroup said a potentially strong El Niño weather pattern this year could have “a significant impact” on sugar production in India and Thailand over the next 6 to 12 months.
Sugar prices are also supported by India’s 4-month ban on sugar exports, which remains in effect until September 30, to protect local supplies. In addition, Datagro raised its 2026/27 global sugar surplus deficit estimate to -3.17 MMT from -2.26 MMT previously. Meanwhile, StoneX last Tuesday predicted that the global sugar market will fall into a -550,000 MT deficit during the 2026/27 season from a 2.3 MMT surplus in the 2025/26 season.
On April 28, Conab, in its initial report for the new sugar season, reported that 2026/27 Brazilian sugar output will decline by -0.5% to 43.952 MMT, while ethanol output will climb by +7.2% y/y to 29.259 million liters. On April 21, the USDA forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production at 42.5 MMT, down -3% y/y, citing millers crushing more cane for ethanol than for sugar.
Sugar prices have found some support amid concerns about supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Covrig Analytics, the closure of the strait has curbed approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, constraining refined sugar output.
Signs of a smaller global sugar surplus are supportive for prices. On April 21, Covrig Analytics cut its 2026/27 global sugar surplus estimate to 800,000 MT from 1.4 MMT previously. On April 20, sugar trader Czarnikow cut its 2026/27 global sugar surplus estimate to 1.1 MMT from 3.4 MMT in February, and cut its 2025/26 surplus estimate to 5.8 MT from 8.3 MMT.
On April 16, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. reported that India’s 2025-26 sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was up +7.7% y/y to 27.48 MMT. On April 7, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 32 MMT, down from an earlier projection of 32.4 MMT. The ISMA also projects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 800,000 MT. India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies. Meanwhile, the USDA on April 30 said it expects a 2026/27 sugar surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on December 16, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.6% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecast that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would fall by -2.9% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. FAS also predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y/y to 35.25 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y/y to 10.25 MMT.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
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