Key Takeaways
- On July 17, the ANJ ordered French ISPs to completely block the prediction platform Polymarket.
- Data manipulation at Meteo-France exposed vulnerabilities across prediction markets.
- France joins 3 EU nations including Germany and Italy which have imposed regulations against sites like Polymarket.
Polymarket Traffic from French IP Addresses Surges
France’s national gaming regulator announced Friday it has ordered internet service providers to completely block access to Polymarket, escalating a crackdown on the prediction platform over fears of rampant market manipulation and illegal gambling.
According to a France 24 report, the decision by the Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ) adds teeth to a transaction ban first implemented in November 2024. Despite past financial restrictions, the regulator noted that French traffic to the platform continued to climb, surmounting 578,000 visits from French IP addresses last month alone.
Under French law, the ANJ determined that the site’s real-time odds updates operated as a form of illegal advertising.
“Advertising, by any means whatsoever, in favor of an unauthorized betting or gambling site is a criminal offense,” the regulator stated, warning that violations could yield corporate fines reaching approximately $114,000.
Central to the regulator’s aggressive intervention are rising concerns over data integrity and rigged wagers. In April, France’s national weather agency, Meteo-France, filed a complaint against the prediction platform following a breach.
According to officials, hackers breached one of Meteo-France’s digital weather probes to intentionally alter environmental data readings. The cyber-tampering was designed to artificially trigger specific outcomes on Polymarket’s weather-related prediction pools, allowing rogue traders to secure guaranteed payouts on skewed bets.
Global Insider Trading Concerns
The incident exposed severe structural vulnerabilities in how prediction platforms validate external data inputs. The breach triggered a formal investigation by the cybercrime unit of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office. Investigators discovered that the platform lacked necessary protective mechanisms and foundational safeguards—such as standard identity verification and know-your-customer compliance—making it an appealing target for sophisticated data-rigging schemes.
The French weather probe manipulation is part of a broader string of security and insider trading scandals plaguing the prediction market sector globally.
In the U.S., a soldier is facing federal charges after he allegedly used classified military intelligence to wager on the outcome of a January operation aimed at capturing former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The soldier reportedly netted more than $400,000 from the insider bets.
On July 16, the White House suspended a teleprompter operator over allegations that he placed targeted bets on the specific wording and content of upcoming speeches by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Regulators have also pointed to individual traders capable of swinging entire markets single-handedly, citing a French trader known as “Fredi9999” who reportedly moved political betting odds via multimillion-dollar wagers, eventually walking away with roughly $50 million in profits.
While France permits heavily regulated online sports betting, the state maintains a strict prohibition against unregulated prediction frameworks that offer addictive features without consumer protection laws. France now joins several other European nations, including Germany, Italy and Spain, that have moved to systematically restrict or ban decentralized prediction markets.
