Key Points
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Constellation Energy trades at about $274, roughly a third below its record of $412.70, after raising full-year earnings guidance this month.
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The 2026 guidance midpoint of $12 per share sits 28% above last year’s adjusted operating earnings of $9.39.
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Contracted demand includes 20-year deals with Microsoft and Meta Platforms plus another 920 megawatts of newly signed agreements.
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Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) reached $412.70 within the past year. As of this writing, shares go for about $274 — roughly a third below that record. My prediction: shares take the record back before 2030.
The climb that prediction requires is steep but, arguably, not wild. From about $274, returning to $412.70 by the end of 2029 works out to about 13% compound annual appreciation over the next three and a half years.
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For scale, Constellation’s net income across the trailing 12 months comes to $3.5 billion, on revenue of $31.3 billion. Constellation is also a company whose growth over the rest of the decade is spelled out in advance to an unusual degree.
Earnings growth alone could cover that, if the current trajectory holds.
Image source: Getty Images.
Earnings are climbing fast
Constellation, the largest private-sector power producer in the world, earned $9.39 per share on a non-GAAP (adjusted) operating basis in 2025. This month, alongside second-quarter results, management raised its full-year 2026 guidance to a range of $11.50 to $12.50 per share. The $12 midpoint sits 28% above last year’s figure.
The second quarter itself ran ahead of that pace. Adjusted operating earnings came in at $2.55 per share, up 34% year over year from $1.91. The company credited the addition of Calpine and favorable market and portfolio conditions.
Worth noting: the adjusted figure is the one guidance runs on, and it sets aside items the company treats as outside its operations. On a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, second-quarter earnings were $1.42 per share, down from $2.67 a year earlier, largely on such items. And the operating trend is the one doing the climbing.
In other words, the guidance raise wasn’t a rounding tweak. It reflects a business earning meaningfully more than it did a year ago, with half the year still to go.
Demand with signatures on it
What makes the growth unusual for a power producer, I’d argue, is how much of it is already contracted, and with whom. The buyers include some of the biggest technology companies in the world.
The Crane Clean Energy Center, the Pennsylvania nuclear plant Constellation is restarting under a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft, is expected to return 835 megawatts to the grid in 2027. Two regulatory approvals arrived in recent months. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a fuel license amendment allowing the plant to receive new fuel, and a federal waiver cleared the way for the transfer of existing grid-connection rights to the site.
Meta Platforms, meanwhile, signed its own 20-year agreement in 2025, taking 1,121 megawatts from the Clinton plant in Illinois starting in June 2027 — a deal that also supports the plant’s relicensing and a 30-megawatt boost to its output.
And alongside the latest results, Constellation reported another 920 megawatts of newly signed long-term power purchase agreements, with terms of 15 to 20 years starting between 2029 and 2032.
Each of those contracts starts on a dated schedule. That is what makes the next few years of growth more visible than a power producer’s growth usually is.
The path back: 13% a year
At about $274, shares trade at about 23 times the midpoint of this year’s guidance. Hold the stock’s valuation multiple steady, and reaching $412.70 by the end of 2029 requires about $18 of adjusted earnings per share that year. Getting to $18 from this year’s $12 midpoint takes about 14% annual growth — roughly half the rate management just guided to for 2026.
Between Crane’s 835 megawatts arriving in 2027, Meta’s contract starting the same year, and the new agreements phasing in from 2029, the growth drivers with dates on them stretch across the exact window the prediction covers.
Sure, the market could pay less per dollar of earnings than it does today. Shares have traded between $228.63 and $412.70 over the past year, so the market has already repriced this company sharply in both directions. And the adjusted results lean partly on market conditions that helped this quarter and may reverse. But the prediction doesn’t need the price-to-earnings ratio to expand, and it doesn’t need a single new contract to be signed. It needs the company to keep growing at about half this year’s pace.
My prediction stands. With those contracts in place and the required rate running below the pace management is already delivering, I expect Constellation to be back at its record before 2030.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
