Bitcoin’s (BTC) price continued to consolidate near $68,000 on Tuesday, but sustained weakness below this level may generate additional sell pressure from the newest cohort of large holders.
While the long-term whales remain in profit, short-term whales are sitting on sizeable unrealized losses. One analyst highlighted how this pressure may impact BTC’s price, as other indicators point to a continued downtrend.
Key takeaways:
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The short-term Bitcoin whales are sitting on net unrealized losses of 22% at current prices.
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The Binance whale inflow ratio climbed to 0.62 from 0.4 in two weeks, signaling a rise in the large-holder deposits.
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Long-term whales control 71% of the large-wallet supply and remain in profit above their realized price of $41,626.
New BTC whales face mounting unrealized losses
Market analyst Carmelo Alemán noted that the wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC control 4.483 million BTC at the moment. A total of 1.287 million BTC (28.7%) belongs to the short-term holder (STH) whales, while 3.196 million BTC (71.3%) sits with the long-term holder (LTH) whales.
The cost basis gap is significant. STH whales have a realized price of $88,494, carrying an unrealized loss of 22%. LTH whales hold a realized price of $41,626, maintaining a 65% profit.
Alemán explained that this asymmetry shows the recent whale holders are under pressure while older capital retains a large cushion.
However, realized losses among STH whales have remained limited since Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, reflecting resilience from the holders.
The key structural level remains near $41,626, which is the LTH realized price. As long as BTC holds above it, the data reflects redistribution rather than structural capitulation, the analyst said.
Related: Ray Dalio’s world order warning revives case for Bitcoin as neutral money
BTC whale deposits increase as pressure on long-term holders builds
The Binance whale inflow ratio, measuring the share of the 10 largest BTC deposits relative to total inflows, rose to 0.62 from 0.4 between Feb. 2 and Sunday. A higher ratio suggests increasing whale-driven sell-side activity.
Crypto analyst Darkfost said that a part of the flow is linked to the “Hyperunit whale,” who moved almost 10,000 BTC onto Binance.
LTHs spent output profit ratio (SOPR) also dropped to 0.88. SOPR measures whether the coins are being sold at a profit or loss, with a reading below 1 meaning losses are being realized. The monthly average SOPR remains at 1.09, and the annual average stands at 1.87, indicating that long-term profitability is still intact.
Additionally, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said that the long-term holder net-unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) stands at 0.36, meaning unrealized profits remain positive.
The analyst said that the past cycle bottoms formed only after the metric turned negative, implying Bitcoin may still need another dip to confirm capitulation among the LTH cohorts.
Related: Bitcoin weekly RSI echoes mid-2022 bear market as BTC plays liquidity games
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