Analyst Says Boredom Wears Down Holders Faster Than Crashes

The concern isn’t a sharp BTC drop, but the slower erosion of conviction that comes from watching an asset go nowhere week after week.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched $70,000 on April 6, according to data from CoinGecko, then almost immediately fell back, leaving traders right where they have been for the last two months.

Analyst Scott Melker has explained why that kind of stagnation can do more damage than a sharp drop ever could.

The Sideways Trap

Melker, known on X as The Wolf of All Streets, traced the current malaise to a low of $62,353 on February 5, after which, according to him, nothing much has happened.

“At 60 days, we’re barely getting started,” he wrote, warning that “this could stretch another 100 days, or resolve lower and reset the entire process.”

The trader’s worry is not a crash. It is something harder to defend against: the quiet erosion of conviction that comes from watching an asset go nowhere week after week. He reached back to three periods that played out the same way.

The first instance occurred after BTC’s 2019 run to $14,000, with the cryptocurrency bleeding lower for 161 days, pulling buyers in on each recovery only to disappoint them again. Then, after the Luna collapse in 2022, Bitcoin just sat there near $18,000 to $22,000 for nearly five months, not crashing, not recovering, not doing much of anything.

Finally, the market also hit a doldrum after the 2023 banking crisis rally, where Melker says Bitcoin spent about 220 days pinned between $25,000 and $30,000, with every bounce looking like the real deal before it faded.

“All of these instances dragged on just long enough to wear investors down,” Melker wrote. “Not through fear, but through boredom.”

Recent price data reflects that indecision, with Bitcoin trading near $69,000, after briefly touching $70,000 in the past 24 hours. It moved between $68,300 and $70,250 during that period, while the 7-day range sits between $66,000 and $70,000, per CoinGecko.

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No Clean Entry, No All-Clear Signal

Melker’s broader point is that there is no satisfying way out of this.

“There’s no telling where the bottom will be, but the consensus still feels like it’s leaning lower, and if price follows, those expectations will just keep shifting down with it,” he wrote.

The irony he keeps circling back to: the prolonged chop is technically an accumulation window, but it never feels like one. According to him, the sales last longer than expected, and prices always go lower right when it feels like the bottom is in.

Other analysts are skeptical of the recent bounce, too, with some flagging the weekend rally as a potential bull trap. One market watcher, Ted Pillows, pointed to the $69,000 to $70,000 zone as resistance, saying that, if it holds, it could push Bitcoin back below $66,000.