Alvin Lang
Jun 12, 2026 12:15
In the week, bitcoin traded around $60,000–$64,000 as SpaceX IPO speculation sparked volatility and analysts debated its impact on crypto valuations.
SpaceX IPO jitters shape Hormuz odds ahead of July 31
Developments
The SpaceX IPO-driven volatility in bitcoin pushed the price toward the mid-$60,000s last week, before cooling as traders reassessed risk. On Polymarket, the contract tied to “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” has seen activity as market participants reassess the odds of the event unfolding by the end of July.
Forbes Digital Assets reported that bitcoin traded around the $60,000 to $64,000 range this week amid SpaceX-related speculation and a broader crypto price wobble, with analysts weighing whether that IPO frenzy would translate into higher market cap for SpaceX and spill over into crypto valuations. The article notes that analysts warned of heightened volatility as SpaceX’s looming IPO could act as a stress test for crypto markets, while investors debated whether a $2.4 trillion SpaceX valuation would align with bitcoin price trajectories. It highlights a pullback in risk assets as investors rotated into SpaceX exposure, potentially pressuring BTC price levels in the near term. The piece also mentions sky-high price targets from some bulls and the evolving narrative around dollar debasement driving demand for bitcoin as a hedge, set against a backdrop of macro uncertainty. Across crypto markets, traders looked for directional clarity as the SpaceX story intersected with traditional market dynamics, keeping volatility elevated and trading volumes robust across venues.
Prediction Market Reaction
Market data show the binary contract with leading outcome No at 55.5% odds and Yes at 44.5%, with current trading volume approaching several million dollars as the verdict resolution remains set for July 31. The position skew indicates a modest leaning toward No, while total open interest continues to build alongside ongoing voting, reflecting a balanced but liquid market amid cross-asset volatility.
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 44.5%
- Volume: ~$4,180,158
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 44.5% / No 55.5%; No: Yes 44.5% / No 55.5%
- 24h change: -15.5 pp
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Image source: Shutterstock
