Bitcoin may be headed for its worst first quarter in eight years, with data showing Bitcoin is already down 22.3% since the start of the year.
The asset began the year trading around $87,700 and has declined by around $20,000 to current lows of around $68,000, putting it on track for its worst first quarter since the 2018 bear market — which fell almost 50%, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin (BTC) has declined in seven of the past thirteen Q1s, with the most recent being 2025 when it lost 11.8%, 2020 when it shed 10.8%, and the largest ever, 2018, when it dumped 49.7% in just three months.
“The first quarter of the year is known for its volatile nature,” observed analyst Daan Trades Crypto on Sunday.
“So it’s safe to say, whatever happens in Q1 does not generally translate over further down the line, according to the historical price action,” he added.
First-ever red Jan and Feb?
BTC has only ever seen two consecutive first quarters of losses in the bear market years of 2018 and 2022.
Comparatively, Ether (ETH) has only seen red in three of the past nine first quarters, with the current period shaping up to be its third-worst historically, with 34.3% losses so far.
Related: Bitcoin loses $2.3B in biggest crash since 2021 as capitulation intensifies: Analyst
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is also on track to see its first-ever consecutive January and February in the red. The asset lost 10.2% in January and is down 13.4% so far this month. It needs to reclaim $80,000 to prevent a red February.
Bitcoin is in a correctional phase
Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the ongoing decline in BTC price amid persistent global economic uncertainty “reflects a regular correctional phase rather than a structural breakdown in the asset’s long-term trajectory.”
“While short-term pressures could intensify if macroeconomic headwinds persist, historical patterns show Bitcoin’s resilience often leads to strong recoveries in later months, particularly as institutional adoption and halving cycle dynamics continue to strengthen its potential,” he added.
Meanwhile, BTC has entered its fifth consecutive week of losses, falling 2.3% over the past 24 hours to $68,670 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.
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