TLDR
- ETH price rebounded from $2,360 to near $2,668 before settling around $2,600, still about 47% below its October 2025 peak.
- Exchange balances have dropped 28% since May 2025, cutting the supply of ETH readily available to sell.
- Staked ETH rose from 29.8% to 35.56% over the past year, pulling more coins out of circulation.
- Spot ETH ETFs now hold about $16.7 billion in assets, roughly 5.2% of Ethereum’s market value.
- Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says ETH could reach $6,000 if bitcoin hits $150,000 and the ETH/BTC ratio climbs to 0.04.
Ethereum’s price has climbed back above $2,500 after a rough stretch earlier this month. The token fell to $2,360.70 around September 16, then rallied to $2,668 before settling near $2,600.
That recovery still leaves ETH about 47% below its October 2025 high of roughly $4,946. The bounce is real, but it hasn’t erased the bigger picture.
Part of the story is supply. Exchange balances have fallen from 14.8 million ETH to 25.7 million ETH since May 2025, a drop of about 28%.
Fewer coins sitting on exchanges means fewer coins ready to be sold quickly. That matters if demand keeps rising, since a smaller available supply can amplify price moves in either direction.
Staking Pulls More ETH Out of Circulation
Staking has grown alongside the exchange outflows. The share of ETH staked rose from 29.8% in September 2025 to 35.56% by September 18, 2026.
The increase has been steady since January, crossing 32% by April and continuing through the summer. Each staked coin is locked up rather than sitting on the open market.
The funding rate sat near 0.0046 at the time of writing. That suggests leverage hasn’t spiked alongside the staking growth, pointing to a steadier market structure.
ETFs have added another layer of demand. U.S. spot ETH ETFs have taken in about $13.25 billion in total inflows, with total assets near $16.7 billion.
That figure equals about 5.2% of Ethereum’s entire market value. BlackRock’s ETHA fund leads the group, holding more than $9 billion in assets.
Flows have been uneven recently. Ethereum saw over $400 million in outflows midweek, followed by a $143.8 million inflow on September 18.
Forecasts Vary Widely for Year-End
On the price side, forecasts range widely. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has said ETH could reach $6,000 by December if bitcoin hits $150,000 and the ETH/BTC ratio recovers to 0.04.
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has gone further, naming ETH his largest position and pointing to a possible $10,000 price by the end of 2026.
Other forecasts are more restrained. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick has a $4,000 target for the end of 2026, while Citi has previously placed a 12-month target as low as $2,240.
On the charts, ETH is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, at $2,272.50 and $2,076.10. Resistance sits between $2,655 and $2,672.
A break above that zone could open the door to $2,800-$3,000. A failure to hold could bring $2,400 back into play.
Ethereum’s next network upgrade, Glamsterdam, is also on the calendar. The Sepolia testnet version is set for October 6, with the mainnet upgrade planned for the fourth quarter.
The upgrade targets higher throughput, parallel execution, and greater blob capacity. As of September 20, ETH continues to trade near $2,600, with the ETH/BTC ratio around 0.032.
