Bitcoin investors may need to rethink their holding strategy as cooling inflation data shifts the macro narrative, says entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, raising questions about BTC’s hedge thesis.
Pompliano put it pretty bluntly in his Fox Business interview on Thursday: The real test for Bitcoin investors is whether you can hang on to it when inflation isn’t staring you down every day. Do you still trust what Bitcoin stands for—a limited supply, plain and simple? When the government prints more money, Bitcoin climbs. That’s the idea.
“Bitcoin and gold are great long-term things,” he said. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely used measure of inflation, fell to 2.4% in January from 2.7% in December, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, recently told CNBC that inflation “looks better on paper than in reality.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is typically seen as a hedge against inflation because only 21 million coins will ever exist. When central banks increase the money supply and the value of fiat currencies declines, investors often turn to perceived riskier assets, such as Bitcoin, to protect their purchasing power.
Bitcoin sentiment has reached multi-year lows
It comes as sentiment for Bitcoin has reached multi-year lows not seen since June 2022, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posting an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 in its Saturday update.
Bitcoin is trading at $68,850 at the time of publication, down 28.62% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
US dollar devaluation will be covered up by “monetary slingshot”
Pompliano said the macro environment could create short-term volatility for Bitcoin before it resumes its upward trajectory.
“We’re going get deflationary-type forces in the short term, people are going to ask to print money and to drop interest rates,” he said.
He explained that this will lead to the devaluation of the US dollar, though the effect won’t be immediately visible.
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“The currency is going to be devalued at a time where deflation covers up the impact, so I call it a monetary slingshot,” Pompiano said.
Pompliano forecasted that the Federal Reserve will continue to expand the money supply to “deal with inflation,” but as the dollar faces further devaluation, he expects Bitcoin to become “more valuable than ever.”
The US dollar index, which tracks the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies, is down 2.32% over the past 30 days and is trading at $96.88, according to TradingView.
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